A Glimpse into China's Economic Pulse and JD's Revenue Forecasts

2023-10-21

 

59b2900aa03cb2182a51cdb520b535b6To access our exclusive data that will give you a competitive edge over other investors, reach out to us at business@thdatacapital.com

The third quarter of 2023 unveils intriguing developments in China's retail landscape.

Following a dip to a 2.5% Y/Y growth in July, the sector showed resilience, climbing to 5.5% by September's end.

This upward trajectory comes despite the economic challenges, with ecommerce entities, including JD, grappling with a slower-than-anticipated recovery.

The central government's much-awaited economic stimulus was only rolled out in August, a move possibly catalyzed by the decisions of the Politburo Meeting on Economy in July.

Parallelly, aggressive medium-term lending facility operations were underway, peaking at RMB591B in September.

Amidst this backdrop, JD projects its 3Q23E total net revenue to touch RMB 251.0B, reflecting a 3.1% Y/Y growth and surpassing market estimates.

The revenue split provides further insights: while product revenues are poised for a modest 1.2% Y/Y growth at RMB199.4B, service revenues look promising with a projected 10.8% Y/Y surge, reaching RMB51.6B.

However, it's noteworthy that the latter's growth rate reflects a slowdown from the previous quarter, largely attributed to the annual effects of the Deppon Group's consolidation.

 

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